A Model Predicting the 6-Month Disability of Patients With Traumatic Brain Injury to Assess the Quality of Care in Intensive Care Units: Results from the CREACTIVE Study.

Assessing quality of care is essential for improving the management of patients experiencing traumatic brain injury (TBI). This study aimed at devising a rigorous framework to evaluate the quality of TBI care provided by intensive care units (ICUs) and applying it to the Collaborative Research on Acute Traumatic Brain Injury in Intensive Care Medicine in Europe (CREACTIVE) consortium, which involved 83 ICUs from seven countries. The performance of the centers was assessed in terms of patients' outcomes, as measured by the 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E). To account for the between-center differences in the characteristics of the admitted patients, we developed a multinomial logistic regression model estimating the probability of a four-level categorization of the GOS-E: good recovery (GR), moderate disability (MD), severe disability (SD), and death or vegetative state (D/VS). A total of 5928 patients admitted to the participating ICUs between March 2014 and March 2019 were analyzed. The model included 11 predictors and demonstrated good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve in the validation set for GR: 0.836, MD: 0.802, SD: 0.706, D/VS: 0.890) and calibration, both overall (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p value: 0.87) and in several subgroups, defined by prognostically relevant variables. The model was used as a benchmark for assessing quality of care by comparing the observed number of patients experiencing GR, MD, SD, and D/VS to the corresponding numbers expected in each category by the model, computing observed/expected (O/E) ratios. The four center-specific ratios were assembled with polar representations and used to provide a multidimensional assessment of the ICUs, overcoming the loss of information consequent to the traditional dichotomizations of the outcome in TBI research. The proposed framework can help in identifying strengths and weaknesses of current TBI care, triggering the changes that are necessary to improve patient outcomes.

Therapeutic Strategies and Outcomes in Neuropsychiatric Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: An International Multicenter Retrospective Study.

OBJECTIVES: The management of neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE) poses considerable challenges due to limited clinical trials. Therapeutic decisions are customized based on suspected pathogenic mechanisms and symptom severity. This study aimed to investigate therapeutic strategies and disease outcome for patients with NPSLE experiencing their first neuropsychiatric (NP) manifestation. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study defined NP events according to the American College of Rheumatology case definition, categorizing them into three clusters: central/diffuse, central/focal and peripheral. Clinical judgment and a validated attribution algorithm were used for NP event attribution. Data included demographic variables, SLE disease activity index, cumulative organ damage, and NP manifestation treatments. The clinical outcome of all NP events was determined by a physician seven-point Likert scale. Predictors of clinical improvement/resolution were investigated in a multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The analysis included 350 events. Immunosuppressants and corticosteroids were more frequently initiated/escalated for SLE-attributed central diffuse or focal NP manifestations. At 12 months of follow-up, 64% of patients showed a clinical improvement in NP manifestations. Focal central events and SLE-attributed manifestations correlated with higher rates of clinical improvement. Patients with NP manifestations attributed to SLE according to clinical judgment and treated with immunosuppressants had a significantly higher probability of achieving clinical response (OR 2.55, 95%CI 1.06-6.41, p= 0.04). Age at diagnosis and focal central events emerged as additional response predictors. CONCLUSION: NP manifestations attributed to SLE by clinical judgment and treated with immunosuppressants demonstrated improved 12-month outcomes. This underscores the importance of accurate attribution and timely diagnosis of NPSLE.

A multiparametric risk table for loss of clinical remission status in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: A starter study post-hoc analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This post-hoc analysis was carried out on data acquired in the longitudinal Sonographic Tenosynovitis/arthritis Assessment in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients in Remission (STARTER) study. Its primary aim was to determine the predictive clinical and MSUS features factors for disease flare in RA patients in clinical remission, whilst its secondary aim was to evaluate the probability of disease flare based on clinical and MSUS features. METHODS: The analysis included a total of 389 RA patients in DAS28-defined remission. All patients underwent a MSUS examination according to OMERACT guidelines. Logistic regression and results presented as OR and 95%CI were used for the evaluation of the association between selected variables and disease flare. Significant clinical and MSUS features were incorporated into a risk table to predict disease flare within 12 months in RA remission patients. RESULTS: Within 12 months, 137(35%) RA patients experienced a disease flare. RA patients who experienced a flare disease differed from persistent remission for ACPA positivity (75.9%vs62.3%; p= 0.007), percentage of sustained clinical remission at baseline (44.1%vs68.5%; p= 0.001) and synovium PD signal presence (58.4%vs33.3%; p< 0.001). Based on these results, the three features were considered in a predictive model of disease flare with adjOR 3.064(95%CI 1.728-5.432). Finally, a risk table was constructed including the three significant predictive factors of disease flare within 12 months from the enrolment. CONCLUSION: An adaptive flare prediction model tool, based on data available in outpatient setting, were developed as a multiparametric risk table. If confirmed by the external validation, this tool might support the definition of therapeutic strategies in RA patients in DAS28-defined remission status.

Impact of Risk Factors on COVID-19 Outcomes in Unvaccinated People With Rheumatic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Pandemic Epochs Using the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Approximately one third of individuals worldwide have not received a COVID-19 vaccine. Although studies have investigated risk factors linked to severe COVID-19 among unvaccinated people with rheumatic diseases (RDs), we know less about whether these factors changed as the pandemic progressed. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 in unvaccinated individuals in different pandemic epochs corresponding to major variants of concern. METHODS: Patients with RDs and COVID-19 were entered into the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry between March 2020 and June 2022. An ordinal logistic regression model (not hospitalized, hospitalized, and death) was used with date of COVID-19 diagnosis, age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, comorbidities, RD activity, medications, and the human development index (HDI) as covariates. The main analysis included all unvaccinated patients across COVID-19 pandemic epochs; subanalyses stratified patients according to RD types. RESULTS: Among 19,256 unvaccinated people with RDs and COVID-19, those who were older, male, had more comorbidities, used glucocorticoids, had higher disease activity, or lived in lower HDI regions had worse outcomes across epochs. For those with rheumatoid arthritis, sulfasalazine and B-cell-depleting therapy were associated with worse outcomes, and tumor necrosis factor inhibitors were associated with improved outcomes. In those with connective tissue disease or vasculitis, B-cell-depleting therapy was associated with worse outcomes. CONCLUSION: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes were similar throughout pandemic epochs in unvaccinated people with RDs. Ongoing efforts, including vaccination, are needed to reduce COVID-19 severity in this population, particularly in those with medical and social vulnerabilities identified in this study.

Effect of a quality improvement program on compliance to the sepsis bundle in non-ICU patients: a multicenter prospective before and after cohort study.

Objective: Sepsis and septic shock are major challenges and economic burdens to healthcare, impacting millions of people globally and representing significant causes of mortality. Recently, a large number of quality improvement programs focused on sepsis resuscitation bundles have been instituted worldwide. These educational initiatives have been shown to be associated with improvements in clinical outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the impact of a multi-faceted quality implementing program (QIP) on the compliance of a "simplified 1-h bundle" (Sepsis 6) and hospital mortality of severe sepsis and septic shock patients out of the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: Emergency departments (EDs) and medical wards (MWs) of 12 academic and non-academic hospitals in the Lombardy region (Northern Italy) were involved in a multi-faceted QIP, which included educational and organizational interventions. Patients with a clinical diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock according to the Sepsis-2 criteria were enrolled in two different periods: from May 2011 to November 2011 (before-QIP cohort) and from August 2012 to June 2013 (after-QIP cohort). Measurements and main results: The effect of QIP on bundle compliance and hospital mortality was evaluated in a before-after analysis. We enrolled 467 patients in the before-QIP group and 656 in the after-QIP group. At the time of enrollment, septic shock was diagnosed in 50% of patients, similarly between the two periods. In the after-QIP group, we observed increased compliance to the "simplified rapid (1 h) intervention bundle" (the Sepsis 6 bundle - S6) at three time-points evaluated (1 h, 13.7 to 18.7%, p = 0.018, 3 h, 37.1 to 48.0%, p = 0.013, overall study period, 46.2 to 57.9%, p < 0.001). We then analyzed compliance with S6 and hospital mortality in the before- and after-QIP periods, stratifying the two patients' cohorts by admission characteristics. Adherence to the S6 bundle was increased in patients with severe sepsis in the absence of shock, in patients with serum lactate <4.0 mmol/L, and in patients with hypotension at the time of enrollment, regardless of the type of admission (from EDs or MWs). Subsequently, in an observational analysis, we also investigated the relation between bundle compliance and hospital mortality by logistic regression. In the after-QIP cohort, we observed a lower in-hospital mortality than that observed in the before-QIP cohort. This finding was reported in subgroups where a higher adherence to the S6 bundle in the after-QIP period was found. After adjustment for confounders, the QIP appeared to be independently associated with a significant improvement in hospital mortality. Among the single S6 procedures applied within the first hour of sepsis diagnosis, compliance with blood culture and antibiotic therapy appeared significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: A multi-faceted QIP aimed at promoting an early simplified bundle of care for the management of septic patients out of the ICU was associated with improved compliance with sepsis bundles and lower in-hospital mortality.

COVID-19 prognosis in systemic lupus erythematosus compared with rheumatoid arthritis and spondyloarthritis: results from the CONTROL-19 Study by the Italian Society for Rheumatology.

INTRODUCTION: Data concerning SARS-CoV-2 in patients affected by SLE are contradicting.The aim of this study was to investigate disease-related differences in COVID-19 prognosis of patients affected by rheumatic diseases before vaccination; we tested the hypothesis that patients with SLE may have a different outcome compared with those with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or spondyloarthritis (SPA). METHODS: We analysed data from the national CONTROL-19 Database with a retrospective, observational design, including rheumatic patients affected by COVID-19. The principal outcome measure was hospitalisation with death or mechanical ventilation. Differences between SLE, RA and SPA were analysed by univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: We included 103 patients with SLE (88.2% female, mean age 48.9 years, 50.4% active disease), 524 patients with RA (74.4% female, mean age 60.6 years, 59.7% active disease) and 486 patients with SPA (58.1% female, mean age 53.2 years, 58% active disease).Outcome prevalence was not different between patients with SLE and those with RA (SLE 24.5%, RA 25.6%), while patients with SPA showed a more favourable outcome compared with those with SLE (SPA 15.9%); data from the multivariable analysis confirmed this result.In SLE, age >65 years (OR 17.3, CI 5.51 to 63.16, p<0.001), hypertension (OR 6.2, CI 2.37 to 17.04, p<0.001) and prednisone (PDN) use (OR 3.8, CI 1.43 to 11.39, p=0.01) were associated with severe outcomes, whereas hydroxychloroquine use was found to be protective (OR 0.3, CI 0.14 to 0.91, p=0.03). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that patients with SLE and RA do not show a different COVID-19 outcome, while patients with SPA have a more favourable disease course compared with those with SLE. Risk of hospitalisation with ventilation or death was associated with age >65 years, hypertension and PDN use in patients with SLE.

Diagnosis of calcium pyrophosphate crystal deposition disease by ultrasonography: how many and which sites should be scanned?

OBJECTIVE: To develop the optimal US scanning protocol for the diagnosis of CPPD disease. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, consecutive patients with a crystal-proven diagnosis of CPPD disease, and age-, sex-matched disease controls and with a negative synovial fluid analysis were prospectively enrolled in two Italian Institutions. Four rheumatologists, blinded to patients' clinical details, performed US examinations using a standardised scanning protocol including 20 joints (shoulders, elbows, wrists, metacarpophalangeal joints from 2nd to 5th fingers, hips, knees, ankles). CPPD was identified as presence/absence, according to the OMERACT definitions. Reduced US scanning protocols were developed by selecting the most informative joints to be imaged by US using the LASSO technique. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets. Their diagnostic accuracy was tested comparing the area under the ROC curves. RESULTS: 204 participants were enrolled: 102 with CPPD disease and 102 disease controls [age (mean±standard deviation) 71.3 ± 12.0 vs 71.1 ± 13.5 years, female: 62.8% vs 57.8%].The median number of joints with US evidence of CPPD was 5 (IQR: 4-7) and 0 (IQR: 0-1) in patients with CPPD disease and controls, respectively (p< 0 01).The detection of CPPD in ≥ 2 joints using a reduced scanning protocol (bilateral assessment of knees, wrists, and hips) showed a sensitivity of 96.7% (95%CI: 82.8-99.9) and a specificity of 100 (95%CI: 88.8-100.0) for the diagnosis of CPPD disease and had good feasibility [(mean±standard deviation) 12.5 ± 5.3 min]. CONCLUSION: Bilateral US assessment of knees, wrists, and hips had excellent accuracy and good feasibility for the diagnosis of CPPD disease.

Comparative Effectiveness of Intracranial Pressure Monitoring on 6-Month Outcomes of Critically Ill Patients With Traumatic Brain Injury.

Importance: While the relationship between persistent elevations in intracranial pressure (ICP) and poorer outcomes is well established for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI), there is no consensus on how ICP measurements should drive treatment choices, and the effectiveness of ICP monitoring remains unknown. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of ICP monitoring on short- and mid-term outcomes of patients with TBI. Design, Setting, and Participants: CREACTIVE was a prospective cohort study that started in March 2014 and lasted 5 years. More than 8000 patients with TBI were enrolled at 83 intensive care units (ICUs) from 7 countries who joined the CREACTIVE Consortium. Patients with TBI who met the Brain Trauma Foundation guidelines for ICP monitoring were selected for the current analyses, which were performed from January to November 2022. Exposure: Patients who underwent ICP monitoring within 2 days of injury (exposure group) were propensity score-matched to patients who were not monitored or who underwent monitoring 2 days after the injury (control group). Main Outcome and Measure: Functional disability at 6 months as indicated by Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) score. Results: A total of 1448 patients from 43 ICUs in Italy and Hungary were eligible for analysis. Of the patients satisfying the ICP-monitoring guidelines, 503 (34.7%) underwent ICP monitoring (median [IQR] age: 45 years [29-61 years]; 392 males [77.9%], 111 females [22.1%]) and 945 were not monitored (median [IQR] age: 66 years [48-78 years]; 656 males [69.4%], 289 females [30.6%]). After matching to balance the variables, worse 6-month recovery was observed for monitored patients compared with nonmonitored patients (death/vegetative state: 39.2% vs 40.6%; severe disability: 33.2% vs 25.4%; moderate disability: 15.7% vs 14.9%; good recovery: 11.9% vs 19.1%, respectively; P = .005). Monitored patients received medical therapies significantly more frequently. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, ICP monitoring was associated with poorer recovery and more frequent medical interventions with their relevant adverse effects. Optimizing the value of ICP monitoring for TBI requires further investigation on monitoring indications, clinical interventions, and management protocols.

Rationale and design of the PARTHENOPE trial: A two-by-two factorial comparison of polymer-free vs biodegradable-polymer drug-eluting stents and personalized vs standard duration of dual antiplatelet therapy in all-comers undergoing PCI.

BACKGROUND: Over the past few decades, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has undergone significant advancements as a result of the combination of device-based and drug-based therapies. These iterations have led to the development of polymer-free drug-eluting stents. However, there is a scarcity of data regarding their clinical performance. Furthermore, while various risk scores have been proposed to determine the optimal duration of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), none of them have undergone prospective validation within the context of randomized trials. DESIGN: The PARTHENOPE trial is a phase IV, prospective, randomized, multicenter, investigator-initiated, assessor-blind study being conducted at 14 centers in Italy (NCT04135989). It includes 2,107 all-comers patients with minimal exclusion criteria, randomly assigned in a 2-by-2 design to receive either the Cre8 amphilimus-eluting stent or the SYNERGY everolimus-eluting stent, along with either a personalized or standard duration of DAPT. Personalized DAPT duration is determined by the DAPT score, which accounts for both bleeding and ischemic risks. Patients with a DAPT score <2 (indicating higher bleeding than ischemic risk) receive DAPT for 3 or 6 months for chronic or acute coronary syndrome, respectively, while patients with a DAPT score ≥2 (indicating higher ischemic than bleeding risk) receive DAPT for 24 months. Patients in the standard DAPT group receive DAPT for 12 months. The trial aims to establish the noninferiority between stents with respect to a device-oriented composite end point of cardiovascular death, target-vessel myocardial infarction, or clinically-driven target-lesion revascularization at 12 months after PCI. Additionally, the trial aims to demonstrate the superiority of personalized DAPT compared to a standard approach with respect to a net clinical composite of all-cause death, any myocardial infarction, stroke, urgent target-vessel revascularization, or type 2 to 5 bleeding according to the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium criteria at 24-months after PCI. SUMMARY: The PARTHENOPE trial is the largest randomized trial investigating the efficacy and safety of a polymer-free DES with a reservoir technology for drug-release and the first trial evaluating a personalized duration of DAPT based on the DAPT score. The study results will provide novel insights into the optimizing the use of drug-eluting stents and DAPT in patients undergoing PCI.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Early Arthritis Clinic Organizational Model.

OBJECTIVE: Early diagnosis and tight control improve outcomes of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, whether establishing an early arthritis clinic (EAC) is sustainable for national health systems is not known. This analysis aimed to compare effectiveness and costs of an EAC compared to patients followed by the current standard of care. METHODS: A retrospective study on administrative health databases of patients with a new diagnosis of RA was conducted: 430 patients followed in an EAC were enrolled, and 4 non-EAC controls were randomly matched for each. During 2 years of follow-up, the mean health care costs (outpatient, inpatient, pharmaceutical, and global) and 3 effectiveness measures (number and length of hospitalization and quality of care) of the EAC and non-EAC were estimated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated as well as the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. RESULTS: The cohorts included patients with a mean age of 55.4 years, and 1,506 patients (70%) were female. The mean pharmaceutical (2,602 versus 1,945 euros) and outpatient (2,447 versus 1,778 euros) costs were higher in the EAC cohort. Conversely, a higher rate of non-EAC patients had a low adherence to quality-of-care indicators. The expected number of hospitalizations and the length of stay were statistically significantly higher in the non-EAC versus EAC. CONCLUSION: Despite an expected increase in outpatient costs (visits and diagnostic tests) and pharmaceutical costs, the reduction in terms of number and length of hospitalizations and the higher adherence to international quality-of-care guidelines support the effectiveness of the EAC model.

Similarities and differences between younger and older disease onset patients with newly diagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVES: Several studies show that age at onset has an impact on the clinical-serological presentation, comorbidities and disease course of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We evaluated whether, in patients with recent onset SLE, the age at onset correlates with clinical-serological manifestations and with comorbidities. METHODS: We analysed 171 patients with a SLE diagnosis obtained within 12 months of diagnosis enrolled in the Early Lupus project. Based on the age of onset of the first disease symptom, they were stratified into 2 groups: early onset (18-45 years) and late onset (>45 years). The analysis was replicated by stratifying patients based on age at diagnosis (fulfillment of ACR classification criteria). Each comparison was made at baseline and at 36 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Baseline: patients with late onset displayed comorbidities (hypertension, dyslipidemia and osteoporosis) more frequently than early onset group. 11.4% of late onset patients had a malignancy in medical history, not recorded in the early onset cohort. The two groups differed neither in organ involvement (domain BILAG) nor in disease activity (ECLAM). Patients with early onset showed a disease with signs of higher serologic activity (higher frequency of anti-dsDNA positivity and lower mean C3 and C4 levels) and had malar rash more frequently than the late onset group (36.2% vs. 18.2%, p=0.042). Similar results were obtained by stratifying patients by age of diagnosis (18-45 years and >45 years), except for the higher frequency of discoid rash in the group with age at diagnosis >45 years (18% vs. 6.6%, p=0.045). 36 months: the 2 groups of patients independently of the stratification applied did not differ in the accumulation of damage, but showed a different pattern of 8 organ involvement. Musculoskeletal involvement was more frequent both in the late onset group (18.6% vs. 7.3%, p=0.043) and in the group with age at diagnosis >45 years (20.4% vs. 5.9%, p=0.009) compared to their counterparts, while renal involvement was more frequent in the group with age at diagnosis 18-45 years (21.4% vs. 6.1%, p=0.03).A sub analysis at 36 months on patients without hypertension and osteoporosis at enrollment showed that patients with older age at onset had a higher frequency of these comorbidities, compared to their counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, younger disease SLE onset seems to correlate with a more active immunological profile, while late onset with a higher incidence of comorbidities.

Relationship between the prevalence of subclinical tenosynovitis and treatment in patients with RA in clinical remission: STARTER study.

OBJECTIVE: This study is a sub-analysis from the patient cohort of the STARTER (Sonographic Tenosynovitis Assessment in RheumaToid arthritis patiEnts in Remission) study. The aim was to evaluate differences in ultrasound-detected joint and/or tendon involvement between patients receiving therapies based on a combination of conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs) and biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs) and those who were treated with either csDMARDs or bDMARDs in monotherapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Four hundred and twenty-seven consecutive patients with a diagnosis of RA were recruited between October 2013 and June 2014. They were divided into three subgroups based on their therapy at baseline: patients with bDMARD in monotherapy, patients with csDMARD in monotherapy and patients in combination therapy (csDMARD + bDMARD). At baseline, 6 months and 12 months, a clinical examination (28 joint count) and an ultrasound evaluation were performed in each patient. A score of grey-scale (GS) and power Doppler (PD) synovitis and tenosynovitis was calculated based on the OMERACT scoring systems. RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-six patients completed the observation period: 48 patients from the bDMARD group (18.75%), 152 patients from the csDMARD group (59.38%) and 56 patients from csDMARD + bDMARD group (21.88%). The analysis showed that GS tenosynovitis and PD tenosynovitis are better controlled in combination therapy than they are with csDMARD alone (P = 0.025 and P = 0.047, respectively); for PD synovitis, there was a better response in those who were treated with the combination therapy when compared with the patients receiving csDMARD (P = 0.01) or bDMARD (P = 0.02) alone. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis showed a lower prevalence of subclinical inflammatory manifestations detected with ultrasound imaging in those patients treated with the combination therapy than in those in monotherapy.

Predictors of disease activity in gout: a 12-month analysis of the ATTACk (Achieving improvement in the management of crystal-induced arthritis) multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Gout treatment is largely suboptimal in clinical practice. We aimed to assess the predictors of disease-activity at 12 months in a real-life setting. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred to Rheumatology Units for suspected acute crystal-induced arthritis were enrolled in a multicentre-cohort study. Only patients with clinical diagnosis of gout were eligible. Disease-activity was evaluated by the Patient Acceptable Symptom State (PASS) on a visual analogue scale (VAS, 0=unsatisfactory, 100=satisfactory) at 0 (T0) and 12 months (T12), and the composite score called Gout Activity Score (GAS) calculated on the number of arthritic attacks (flare count), serum uric acid (sUA), cumulative number of tophi, VAS (T12), PtGA (T12). Multivariate linear regression model was performed to assess predictors of gout disease-activity at T12 with PASS and GAS as outcomes. RESULTS: 201 patients had gout (diagnosis on synovial fluid in 45%, tophi in 26%, mean sUA 7.4±1.9 mg/L, 85% with urate-lowering therapy (ULT) in progress/initiated at T0); mean age 63±13 years, 88% men, median (interquartile range) disease duration 2.9 years (0.7-9.4). Follow-up visits were performed in 113 (56%) patients at T12. Mean PASS observed at T0 and at T12 were 38±27 and 74±23, respectively, whereas GAS at T12 was 10±8. A significant association was observed between the presence of tophi and PASS at T12 (-15.3, 95% CI -25.5, -5.2; p=0.003) and GAS at T12 (+4.0, 95% CI 0.6,7.4; p=0.02), adjusted for age, sex, disease duration, sUA <6 mg/dL, tender joint count, PASS at T0, ULT). CONCLUSIONS: The baseline presence of tophi may predict high disease-activity at T12, thus worsening GAS and patients' pain perception.

Glucocorticoid tapering and associated outcome in patients with newly diagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus: the real-world GULP prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: A subanalysis of the multicentre Early Lupus inception cohort was performed to investigate the real-world Glucocorticoids (GCs) Use in newly diagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) Patients (GULP). METHODS: Patients starting prednisone (PDN) ≥5 mg/day and concomitant hydroxychloroquine or immunosuppressant within 12 months of SLE classification were enrolled. Core set variables were recorded at baseline and every 6 months, including changes in PDN dose, European Consensus Lupus Activity Measurement (ECLAM) and Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics damage index. Regression models analysed predictors of tapering PDN<5 mg/day at any time and outcomes associated with different patterns of GCs tapering. RESULTS: The GULP study included 127 patients with SLE; 73 (57.5%) tapered and maintained PDN <5 mg/day, and 17 (13.4%) discontinued PDN within a 2-year follow-up. Renal involvement (HR: 0.41; p=0.009) and lower C3 serum levels (HR: 1.04; p=0.025) predicted a lack of PDN tapering below 5 mg/day. High ECLAM scores were associated with a greater probability of increasing PDN dose (OR: 1.6; p=0.004), independently of daily intake. Disease relapse rate did not statistically differ (p=0.706) between patients tapering PDN <5 mg/day (42/99, 42.4%) and those tapering PDN without dropping below 5 mg/day (13/28, 46.4%). Every month on PDN <5 mg/day associated with lower damage accrual (IRR: 0.96; p=0.007), whereas never tapering PDN <5 mg/day associated with a higher risk of developing GC-related damage (OR 5.9; p=0.014). CONCLUSION: Tapering PDN <5 mg/day was achieved and maintained in half of newly diagnosed patients with SLE and may represent a good balance between the need to prevent damage accrual and the risk of disease relapse.

Clinical governance of patients with acute coronary syndromes.

AIMS: Using the principles of clinical governance, a patient-centred approach intended to promote holistic quality improvement, we designed a prospective, multicentre study in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to verify and quantify consecutive inclusion and describe relative and absolute effects of indicators of quality for diagnosis and therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Administrative codes for invasive coronary angiography and acute myocardial infarction were used to estimate the ACS universe. The ratio between the number of patients included and the estimated ACS universe was the consecutive index. Co-primary quality indicators were timely reperfusion in patients admitted with ST-elevation ACS and optimal medical therapy at discharge. Cox-proportional hazard models for 1-year death with admission and discharge-specific covariates quantified relative risk reductions and adjusted number needed to treat (NNT) absolute risk reductions. Hospital codes tested had a 99.5% sensitivity to identify ACS universe. We estimated that 7344 (95% CI: 6852-7867) ACS patients were admitted and 5107 were enrolled-i.e. a consecutive index of 69.6% (95% CI 64.9-74.5%), which varied from 30.7 to 79.2% across sites. Timely reperfusion was achieved in 22.4% (95% CI: 20.7-24.1%) of patients, was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for 1-year death of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.40-0.89) and an adjusted NNT of 65 (95% CI: 44-250). Corresponding values for optimal medical therapy were 70.1% (95% CI: 68.7-71.4%), HR of 0.50 (95% CI: 0.38-0.66), and NNT of 98 (95% CI: 79-145). CONCLUSION: A comprehensive approach to quality for patients with ACS may promote equitable access of care and inform implementation of health care delivery. REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.Gov ID NCT04255537.

Environmental and societal factors associated with COVID-19-related death in people with rheumatic disease: an observational study.

Background: Differences in the distribution of individual-level clinical risk factors across regions do not fully explain the observed global disparities in COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to investigate the associations between environmental and societal factors and country-level variations in mortality attributed to COVID-19 among people with rheumatic disease globally. Methods: In this observational study, we derived individual-level data on adults (aged 18-99 years) with rheumatic disease and a confirmed status of their highest COVID-19 severity level from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance (GRA) registry, collected between March 12, 2020, and Aug 27, 2021. Environmental and societal factors were obtained from publicly available sources. The primary endpoint was mortality attributed to COVID-19. We used a multivariable logistic regression to evaluate independent associations between environmental and societal factors and death, after controlling for individual-level risk factors. We used a series of nested mixed-effects models to establish whether environmental and societal factors sufficiently explained country-level variations in death. Findings: 14 044 patients from 23 countries were included in the analyses. 10 178 (72·5%) individuals were female and 3866 (27·5%) were male, with a mean age of 54·4 years (SD 15·6). Air pollution (odds ratio 1·10 per 10 µg/m3 [95% CI 1·01-1·17]; p=0·0105), proportion of the population aged 65 years or older (1·19 per 1% increase [1·10-1·30]; p<0·0001), and population mobility (1·03 per 1% increase in number of visits to grocery and pharmacy stores [1·02-1·05]; p<0·0001 and 1·02 per 1% increase in number of visits to workplaces [1·00-1·03]; p=0·032) were independently associated with higher odds of mortality. Number of hospital beds (0·94 per 1-unit increase per 1000 people [0·88-1·00]; p=0·046), human development index (0·65 per 0·1-unit increase [0·44-0·96]; p=0·032), government response stringency (0·83 per 10-unit increase in containment index [0·74-0·93]; p=0·0018), as well as follow-up time (0·78 per month [0·69-0·88]; p<0·0001) were independently associated with lower odds of mortality. These factors sufficiently explained country-level variations in death attributable to COVID-19 (intraclass correlation coefficient 1·2% [0·1-9·5]; p=0·14). Interpretation: Our findings highlight the importance of environmental and societal factors as potential explanations of the observed regional disparities in COVID-19 outcomes among people with rheumatic disease and lay foundation for a new research agenda to address these disparities. Funding: American College of Rheumatology and European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology.

Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases: Results From the Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Some patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings. METHODS: Data were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier. RESULTS: The study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator. CONCLUSION: We were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression.

Influence of initial glucocorticoid co-medication on mortality and hospitalization in early inflammatory arthritis: an investigation by record linkage of clinical and administrative databases.

BACKGROUND: While low-dose oral glucocorticoids (GCs) are recommended in the management of early arthritis, their impact on mortality is unclear. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of GCs on mortality in patients with early arthritis, by linking clinical and administrative databases. METHODS: The study included patients with new-onset rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or undifferentiated arthritis (2005-2010), who received DMARDs (MTX in RA or UA with poor prognosis, hydroxychloroquine in UA) and were alive at the second year of follow-up. Low-dose GCs could be prescribed. Clinical and administrative data were linked from Administrative Health Databases (AHD) of the corresponding province, which provided us with information on drug delivery, comorbidities, hospitalization, and mortality. The effect of GCs in the first year was defined using a dichotomous variable or a 3-level categorization (not delivered, ≤7.5 mg/day, or >7.5 mg/day of prednisone) on all-cause mortality, assessed with Cox regression, either crude or adjusted for age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) or single comorbidities, ACPA, HAQ, and MTX in the first year. A secondary analysis of the effect of GCs on related hospitalizations (for cardiovascular events, diabetes, serious infections, osteoporotic fractures) was also carried. RESULTS: Four hundred forty-nine patients were enrolled (mean age 58.59, RA 65.03%) of which 51 (11.36%) died during the study. The median (IQR) follow-up was equal to 103.91 (88.03-126.71) months. Treatments with GCs were formally prescribed to 198 patients (44.10%) at ≤7.5 mg/day, although by the end of the study such treatments were received by 257 patients (57.24%); 88 patients (19.6%) were treated with GCs at >7.5 mg/day. In adjusted analyses, the GC delivery (HR, 95% CI 1.35 (0.74, 2.47)) did not significantly predict mortality - both at a low (HR, 95% CI 1.41 (0.73, 2.71)) and at a high (HR, 95% CI 1.23 (0.52, 2.92)) dosage. When "all-cause hospitalization" was used as an outcome, the analysis did not show a difference between patients receiving GC and patients not receiving GC. CONCLUSION: In patients with early inflammatory arthritis, the initial GC dose was higher than that prescribed by rheumatologists; however, on background treatment with DMARDs, GC treatments did not seem to increase mortality and hospitalizations.

Benchmark of Intraoperative Activity in Cardiac Surgery: A Comparison between Pre- and Post-Operative Prognostic Models.

OBJECTIVES: Despite its large diffusion and improvements in safety, the risks of complications after cardiac surgery remain high. Published predictive perioperative scores (EUROSCORE, STS, ACEF) assess risk on preoperative data only, not accounting for the intraopertive period. We propose a double-fold model, including data collected before surgery and data collected at the end of surgery, to evaluate patient risk evolution over time and assess the direct contribution of surgery. METHODS: A total of 15,882 cardiac surgery patients from a Margherita-Prosafe cohort study were included in the analysis. Probability of death was estimated using two logistic regression models (preoperative data only vs. post-operative data, also including information at discharge from the operatory theatre), testing calibration and discrimination of each model. RESULTS: Pre-operative and post-operative models were built and demonstrate good discrimination and calibration with AUC = 0.81 and 0.87, respectively. Relative difference in pre- and post-operative mortality in separate centers ranged from -0.36 (95% CI: -0.44--0.28) to 0.58 (95% CI: 0.46-0.71). The usefulness of this two-fold preoperative model to benchmark medical care in single hospital is exemplified in four cases. CONCLUSIONS: Predicted post-operative mortality differs from predicted pre-operative mortality, and the distance between the two models represent the impact of surgery on patient outcomes. A double-fold model can assess the impact of the intra-operative team and the evolution of patient risk over time, and benchmark different hospitals on patients subgroups to promote an improvement in medical care in each center.